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oil price

The fiscal cost of the oil shock

The IMF has recently released its April 2015 Fiscal Monitor in which it analyses the fiscal impact of lower oil prices.
The April 2015 World Economic Outlook (Uneven Growth: Short- and Long-Term Factors) has already highlighted the impact of lower oil prices on global growth: “Relative to last year, the outlook for advanced economies is improving, […]

By |October 5th, 2016|Categories: Analyst's Insight|Tags: , , |

Any given Sunday?

This week-end news flow was intense in the energy business as many decisions were expected to be made all over the world regarding fossil fuel producers. But the outcome of last Sunday turns out to be rather unsurprising or, as the French saying goes, the mountain labored and brought forth a mouse. Let’s get back […]

By |April 18th, 2016|Categories: Analyst's Insight|Tags: , , , , , |

Algeria selling the Crown jewels?

Is Algeria going to make it? After several months of collapsing oil prices, the question deserves to be addressed. The country, whose governance has been rightfully put into doubts, now seems to be moving in against the global trend. On February 29th, the Chief Executive Officer of the national hydrocarbon company Sonatrach, Amine Mazouzi, declared […]

By |March 23rd, 2016|Categories: Analyst's Insight|Tags: , , , , , , |

Make America innovative again? Probably not…

Last week, we pointed out the opinions of the United States Democrats’ candidates to the next Presidential election on the energy matter, underlining the relative shift in Mrs. Clinton’s line, while Mr. Sanders always strongly showed his opposition to fracking (Defense wins championship, Energy makes presidents?). To even out the debate, and after a big […]

By |March 16th, 2016|Categories: Analyst's Insight|Tags: , , , , |

The Australian need for transition undermined by low energy prices?

Malcolm Turnbull’s nomination as Australia’s Prime Minister last September occasioned some kind of a relief in what the Guardian calls the “international climate community”. A bit like for Trudeau in Canada, the change in leadership opened the Pandora box of hopes for a climate-friendlier policy. Turnbull’s predecessor in office, Mr. Abbott, was indeed among the […]

By |March 15th, 2016|Categories: Analyst's Insight|Tags: , , , , |

Lowering projections on low oil prices: a sound decision?

In its February release of its Short-term energy outlook, the American Energy Information Administration decided to revise downward its expectations for the global Brent crude contract for this year and for 2016. The new projections are now USD 34.28/barrel in 2016 and USD 40.09/barrel in 2017 (from the previous USD 37.00/barrel and USD 50.00/barrel). It […]

By |March 9th, 2016|Categories: Analyst's Insight|Tags: , , , , |

The particular stance of Mexico in the oil game

Game’s on. Last week, many of the world’s top oil players attended and hosted the IHS CERAWeek in Houston. Microphones were on and it was about time to get further information on the major players’ opinions about the current market situation. Indeed, one of the most scrutinized talks was probably the Saudi oil minister Ali Ibrahim Al-Naimi’s comments after last week’s discussion between Saudi Arabia, […]

By |February 24th, 2016|Categories: Analyst's Insight|Tags: , , , , |

A few words on the downgrades

Last Wednesday S&P downgraded several countries. Among these was Brazil, which fell from BB+ to BB. This marks the second time in less than six months that S&P has downgraded Brazil. After hitting junk status on September 9th 2015, Brazil now plunges further down.
 The Brazilian downgrade falls within the scope of rating revisions impacting oil […]

By |February 23rd, 2016|Categories: Analyst's Insight|Tags: , , , |

Long-Term Oil Price Assumptions (real 2014 US$/bbl)

Gaps exist between IEA and OPEC price projections for all IEA scenarios, except for the IEA 450 scenario for 2040. IEA’s Current Policies Scenario (CPS) assumes higher demand for oil and thus higher prices than in the New Policy Scenario (NPS) and the 450-ppm Scenario. The OPEC Reference price is estimated based on the cost […]

By |February 23rd, 2016|Categories: Graph Analysis|Tags: , , , |

Private sector woes

The consequences of the low oil price environment are racking up, with impacts especially apparent in the private sector. Today we take a step back from sovereigns and examine the micro-world of oil and gas companies. If you weren’t already convinced that oil companies are in big trouble, here’s some more proof.
In a context of […]

By |February 17th, 2016|Categories: Analyst's Insight|Tags: , , , , |