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macro-economic risks

Eurozone Escaped From Deflation in March

The eurozone’s latest encounter with deflation has proved to be briefer than first thought, with revised figures for March recording that consumer prices were unchanged compared with a year earlier.

Source:  WSJ, 2016/04/14

IMF: Public Debt at Highest Point in 70-plus Years

Public debt has soared throughout the world’s advanced economies to the highest levels since World War II, the International Monetary Fund warned Wednesday, with many governments facing weak growth and declining prices for such commodities as oil and metals.

Source:  Voice of America, 2016/04/13

IMF warns world economy growing too slowly

The “increasingly disappointing” world economy is facing the threat of a “synchronised slowdown” and mounting risks including another bout of financial market turmoil and a political backlash against globalisation, the International Monetary Fund has warned.

Source:  FT, 2016/04/12

Drought Pushing SA to the Brink of Recession- Moody’s

South Africa’s worst drought on record risks tipping an already weak economy into recession as rising agricultural imports feed into rising inflation, ratings firm Moody’s said on Tuesday. “The worst drought on record in South Africa is aggravating the ongoing economic slowdown, threatening near-zero growth if not a recession in 2016,” said Moody’s Senior Vice […]

German ‘bail-in’ plan for government bonds risks blowing up the euro

A new German plan to impose “haircuts” on holders of eurozone sovereign debt risks igniting an unstoppable European bond crisis and could force Italy and Spain to restore their own currencies, a top adviser to the German government has warned. ñIt is the fastest way to break up the eurozone,î said Professor Peter Bofinger, one […]

World Bank says wars, cheap oil hurting Middle East growth

The World Bank said on Thursday that 2015 economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa likely came to just 2.6 percent, falling short of a 2.8 percent forecast in October as war, terrorism and cheap oil took their toll. In a new report, the bank said five years of war in Syria and […]

Fitch: Nigeria’s Oil Response Has Downside Fiscal, Growth Risks

The Nigerian authorities’ recent economic policy announcements show the response to the oil price shock is coalescing around state-led development to boost economic growth and import substitution to blunt the effects of declining oil receipts, Fitch Ratings says. It is yet to be seen whether the associated measures will promote growth while containing fiscal pressures, […]

The global economy is stuck in a ‘death spiral’ that could lead to a global recession, Citi warns

The global economy is stuck in a ‘death spiral,’ analysts with Citigroup Inc. warned Thursday. The analysts wrote in a report that a ‘negative feedback loop’ of sinking oil prices, a strong US dollar, struggling emerging markets and weak global trade could lead to serious consequences. If repeated ‘ad finitum,’ the analysts wrote, ‘this would […]

Government bond yields send recession signal

If major government bond markets are right, the global economy is sliding towards recession and central bank easing policies will pull borrowing rates deeper into negative territory. In Germany, the average yield on all government debt is now negative, while Japan is on course to become the first major bond market with a 10 year […]

The New Sick Man of Europe Has an AAA Credit Rating

A chronically depressed economy, rising unemployment and an aversion to free-market reforms. Sound like a familiar European tale? But it’s not Greece, Spain or Portugal. It’s Finland. As the indebted and ailing countries in the euro region’s southern rim struggle out of their six-year crisis, some with more success than others, Finland is succumbing to […]