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Analyst’s Insight

The fiscal cost of the oil shock

The IMF has recently released its April 2015 Fiscal Monitor in which it analyses the fiscal impact of lower oil prices.
The April 2015 World Economic Outlook (Uneven Growth: Short- and Long-Term Factors) has already highlighted the impact of lower oil prices on global growth: “Relative to last year, the outlook for advanced economies is improving, […]

By |October 5th, 2016|Categories: Analyst's Insight|Tags: , , |

Selling the crown jewels… till when?

Italy and Greece had paved the way in 2011 when the sovereign crisis hit hard. The governments conjured up the idea to sell national treasures such as islands or historical buildings. The idea was to raise the financial value of historical or natural assets as a collateral to debt. A short-sighted policy that was more […]

By |April 19th, 2016|Categories: Analyst's Insight|Tags: , , , , |

Any given Sunday?

This week-end news flow was intense in the energy business as many decisions were expected to be made all over the world regarding fossil fuel producers. But the outcome of last Sunday turns out to be rather unsurprising or, as the French saying goes, the mountain labored and brought forth a mouse. Let’s get back […]

By |April 18th, 2016|Categories: Analyst's Insight|Tags: , , , , , |

What do you know that we don’t, OPEC?

As you probably noticed all, the barrel price rebounded since mid-February, leading to a WTI crude rallying from USD 26.21/b (on Feb. 11th) to USD 41.50/b (on April 14th) and a Brent crude bouncing back from USD 30.06/b to USD 43.84/b. But in its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) of April (see here), the OPEC […]

By |April 15th, 2016|Categories: Analyst's Insight|Tags: , , , , , |

Peabody Energy, the boat that rocked…

Restructuring… this was yesterday’s concept, this is today’s necessity, but that’s not enough. On Wednesday, St. Louis-based Peabody Energy Corporation filed for bankruptcy in the United States and was placed under Chapter 11’s protection. Founded in 1883 in Chicago by Francis Peabody, who was carrying coal on horse cart, the company became step by step […]

By |April 14th, 2016|Categories: Analyst's Insight|Tags: , , , , |

IMF World Economic Outlook April’s update: Too risky for too long!

On Tuesday, April 12, 2016, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its world economic growth forecasts for 2016, 2017 and beyond in its World Economic Outlook (WEO) April’s update. Regarding the revision of world economic growth figures, it appears that the world economy is projected to grow 3.2% in 2016 and 3.5% in 2017 (vs. […]

By |April 13th, 2016|Categories: Analyst's Insight|Tags: , , , , , |

What do you want to buy Saudi Arabia?

Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman recently gave an interview to Bloomberg in which it described the country’s ambitious plans to develop its Public Investment Fund (PIF) into the largest sovereign wealth fund globally.
Gulf States’ sovereign wealth funds (SWF) are regularly drawing attention from the public, the media, and economic players. Sometimes this is […]

The ECB, Democracy & Neutrality

(by Michel Lepetit)
European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi, followed by his Japanese counterpart Haruhiko Kuroda, has said there are no limits to his monetary interventions (“Within our mandate we have no limits on the choice of policy tools or the way to employ it (…)”).
 Since financial deregulation in the 1980s, central banks have consistently […]

By |April 11th, 2016|Categories: Analyst's Insight|Tags: , , , , |

Russia Eurobonds could be more attractive thanks to… Western sanctions

As everyone knows, Russia’s main sources of revenue come from oil and gas exports. Indeed, oil and gas exports accounted for more than two thirds of total exports in 2014. Given the sharp drop in oil prices since late 2014, the trade surplus contracted sharply and consequently, the budget deficit increased to represent 2,4% of […]

By |April 8th, 2016|Categories: Analyst's Insight|Tags: , , , , |

Did you say crisis was looming in oil producing countries?

The oil shock is not only an energy issue… We already discussed in these columns the impact the collapse of energy prices could have on the banking system in the United States (See here for And what about banks?). We were precisely pointing out that the direct exposure of banks in America was rather limited […]

By |April 7th, 2016|Categories: Analyst's Insight|Tags: , , , |